With Trump election win, China braces for higher US tensions

China’s President Xi Jinping on Thursday congratulated Donald Trump on his US presidential election victory and expressed hope that both sides can “find the right way to get along in the new era.” 
Xi called for strengthened dialogue between both powers to properly manage differences and said the international community would expect them to “respect each other (and) co-exist peacefully.”
The US-China rivalry has intensified since Trump was first elected in 2016. With Trump’s return to the White House, experts say tensions between the two sides could further escalate in the coming years.
“Although Trump may be less inclined towards military conflict, he is quite suspicious of China in other areas, even harboring a certain degree of hostility,” said Chong Ja Ian, a political science associate professor at the National University of Singapore.
Such hostility is expected to be particularly evident in Sino-US trade wars, as analysts warn of potential “shocks” caused by Trump’s economic policy.
“There’s going to be probably big shifts in how the US engages with the rest of the world, including maybe first of all with China,” said Ilaria Mazzocco, deputy director of the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
If Trump follows through on his campaign promises, Beijing could face a significant challenge: a 60% tariff on all Chinese exports to the US.
This move could further destabilize China’s already fragile economy, which is currently grappling with rising youth unemployment, a sluggish real estate market and government debt issues.
An analysis report released earlier this year by the Swiss bank UBS indicates that a 60% tariff on Chinese imports could reduce China’s projected economic expansion by as much as 2.5 percentage points, which is half the country’s growth target of 5%.
Mazzocco said while the current US President Joe Biden’s economic and trade policy towards China is also tough, Trump’s approach would escalate tensions further and hit large parts of the economy.
“While the Biden administration had a significant focus on some strategic technologies, Trump is likely to come in with broader concerns about the US economy, and I think much more willingness to push for decoupling in larger swaths of the economy,” she told DW.
Chong said Beijing understands it may face a relatively “hostile” US policy under Trump and is more “on the guard.”
Mazzocco pointed out that Beijing has already shown signs of retaliation against US trade restrictions by imposing new tariffs on specific American industries. China has also tried to diversify its markets as a way to make the Chinese economy “more resilient to shocks,” she said.
In the diplomatic arena, Trump’s constant advocacy of the “America first” policy is seen as tending towards “isolationism” in international relations, and away from intervention in conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war.
This leaves US allies in a situation where they are caught between China and the US, say observers.
Ali Wyne, senior analyst for US-China Affairs at the International Crisis Group, believes that this could be seen as an opportunity by China “to weaken the set of Eurasian alliances and partnerships that the Biden administration has undertaken to reinvigorate.”
Chong also pointed out that in Trump’s current advisory team, which includes potential candidates for the future Cabinet, there are voices suggesting the US should “abandon Europe and protect Asia,” meaning concentrating US resources on Asia and letting Europe chart its own course.
But given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the recent tariff disputes over Chinese-made EVs, most EU member states may remain skeptical of establishing closer ties with China.
Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island Beijing claims as its own territory, remains one of the core disagreements in US-China relations.
The US, as Taiwan’s most important ally, has continued to support the island with arms sales, even days prior to the presidential election — a move Beijing viewed as a provocation.
During the US election campaign, Trump made several controversial statements regarding Taiwan.
He criticized Taipei for taking away almost all the US chip business and suggested that the island should pay “protection fees” to the US in exchange for strategic support.
“Because he (Trump) has a businessman’s personality, he may tend to treat most issues as bargaining chips,” Wen Liu, a researcher at Academia Sinica in Taiwan who has closely followed multiple elections in the US, told DW.
“So, an important concept is that even if he is anti-China or wants to compete with China, it does not necessarily mean that he will protect Taiwan.”
In addition to the president, the US Congress will also play a major role in shaping Taiwan policy. With a Republican-controlled Congress, Taiwan may face more US pressure to increase its defense budget to show determination to defend itself.
Liu said that while it is a necessary move for Taiwan, adjusting defense budgets when the US is under Republican leadership may intensify the suspicious sentiment that already exists on the island over Washington’s commitment to militarily support Taiwan.
“If it seems that the government is doing this to satisfy the US, I think at least more than half of the people in Taiwan may not buy it, and it may even increase the resistance to defense reform,” Liu said.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru